Countdown South India – Elections 2009
South India does not follow any trend. With regional parties at helm, It will be interesting to see possible breakups and marriages. Read detailed analysis.
Andhra Pradesh (42): Andhra politics is in state of constant turmoil. TDP is trying to gain its lost ground. BJP is trying to make inroads by supporting telangana demand. TRS is in disarray. Congress is facing a strong anti-incumbency and opposition in telangana region. Most likely situation is TDP and Congress getting 18 each, TRS and BJP both getting 3-3. Newly formed Chiranjeevi’s party can disturb all equation. We should remember great performance by NTR in his first election. History can repeat itself. If Chiranjeevi get votes then it will be on cost of congress and TDP.
Karnataka (28): Karnataka BJP is looking to make this state a BJP clean sweep, but new developments between JDS and Congress can make road difficult for BJP and can reverse the mandate in this three party state. If situation continue as of now and all three major parties fight election alone, BJP is likely to win 18 seats, Congress grabbing 7 and JDS 3 seats. But nobody can rely on Mr. Devegauda. He can change any stance any time. So let us watch.
Kerala (20): Kerala was a shock to Congress in 2004 election, as they end up getting nothing out of this state. Though BJP is trying hard to win some votes in this southernmost state by relying on RSS, but still it is a two way fight between UPA and Left. This election is most likely to be split between the two. As the time passes, congress is gradually gaining ground. If election happens at scheduled time Congress can secure 8, and left 12 seats.
Tamil Nadu (40): Tamil Nadu is politically most interesting state in south India right now. Congress and BJP can win 1 seat each. If BJP allies with Jayalalita, then they have chance to win 1 more seat. As MDMK gone and now PMK ready to Mr. oldman is in big danger to loosing it to Amma. AIDMK is likely to win 20 seats this time, leaving 18 seats for DMK, MDMK, PMK. These three party are going to lose big time by fighting among each other. DMK could end up with 12 seats, PMK, MDMK 3 seats each. It will be interesting to see, whether any of PMK, MDMK joins ranks with Jayalalita or BJP. BJP and AIDMK will most likely form a pre poll alliance.
This completes our south India analysis and final tally will be:
Total seats: 130
BJP: 22
AIDMK: 20
This gives NDA total as 42
INC: 34
DMK: 12
This gives UPA total as 46
TDP: 18
TRS: 03
JDS: 03
Left: 12
MDMK: 03
PMK: 03
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Good Analysis. But I don’t feel exactly happy with the analysis. I am totally disgusted with the present day politicians of all colours. Is there a way to improve their lot? Yes there is, by sweeping electoral reforms. (Please refer to my blog: http://lvnaga.wordpress.com/2008/08/01/indian-democracy/)
But there is no hope that these reforms will see the light of the day, as they are against the interest of the people (the MPs and MLAs) who are supposed to implement them.
The next best things to do is to vote them out lock stock and barrel in the next general elections (2009). Can we do it? YES WE CAN. Please see my blog:
http://lvnaga.wordpress.com/2009/01/21/democratic-revolution/.
I would love to have your comments on the above blogs
For AP you need to do a detailed analysis including the track record of candidates and alliances. Maha combine (TDP TRS CPI and CPM) together and Congress+AIMIM, PRP+NTP, BJP is a four sided contest.
Analysing past sitatuion Maha has a total of 45 to 60 percent vote bank(total Ap and in telangana). congress 30 percent. BJP 5 to 10 percnet. With PRP eating into all others it could be advantage Mahacomibine. TDP TRS etc all set to win more than 80 seats in telangana. and 15 MPs in Telangana. So even with a three way split it could be like this :
TRS 6(min worst case) 10 (best case scenario)
TDP : 12 worst case. 22 best case scenario.
Remaining going to BJP(0-2) AIMIM(1 or zero) CPs(2 to 4) COngress :4 to 12. PRP(0-6).
see original article with detailed analysis of whole country.
http://promiseofreason.com/series/countdown-to-general-election-2009/